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Letter "I" » Ian Shepherdson Quotes
«There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.»
«There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.»
«[His testimony] leaves us thinking that a June 25 easing is far from a done deal -- it will depend on the data,»
«This level of the ISM is not consistent with recession,»
«The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.»
«It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,»
«This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,»
«[This is] a significant downside shock, and perhaps a sign falling consumer sentiment is rattling companies, ... A further drop next month will see the [Federal Reserve] easing again.»
«Now the question is whether sales can hold up in the face of lower consumer confidence,»
«A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,»

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